• 微博
  • 微信微信二维码

广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

“新常态下提高增长质量需要更大作为”(组图)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月21日 12:01:17
【字体:

意彩娱乐S老板29229信誉平台官方,招龙虎和代理注册实力招商主管Q扣99277339,永久注册网址www.yicai269.com时时彩龙虎和,意彩彩票代理,意彩官网,意彩平台注册,意彩乐官网,意彩娱乐官方网站“新常态下提高增长质量需要更大作为”(组图)

江苏外教:球队新外援未确定 虽输球但士气不错 打工小伙与老板女儿恋爱 被逼分手割腕自杀(图) 宋志平:蓝天是企业的第一责任 王振耀:中国到了“善”经济时代 能否解渴?是否涨价?如何防污?三问“南水”进京 揭秘世界最大跨流域调水工程南水北调工程 丈夫中近千万大奖 妻子被瞒3年后知晓愤而离婚 中国投资智利出产 南美水果网络上市 总决赛-水谷隼福原爱险出局 奥恰冯天薇皆进8强 2020东京奥运缩减项目 澳媒:200米1万米或消失 37名高级将领集中撰文学习习近平依法治军思想 安监总局要求企业危险危害因素必须向员工公示 郭军:社会责任已经脱离了“野生状态” 国家发改委发布碳排放权交易管理办法 明年施行 聂树斌案异地复查 聂母:若在河北复查定有阻力

(本)(报)(记)(者)(王)(尔)(德)(北)(京)(报)(道)(  12月)(9日)(-11日)(召)(开)(的)(中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(指)(出)(,我)(国)(经)(济)(正)(在)(向)(形)(态)(更)(高)(级)(、分)(工)(更)(复)(杂)(、结)(构)(更)(合)(理)(的)(阶)(段)(演)(化)(,经)(济)(发)(展)(进)(入)(新)(常)(态)(,正)(从)(高)(速)(增)(长)(转)(向)(中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(。  “中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(是)(增)(长)(阶)(段)(转)(换)(出)(现)(的)(正)(常)(现)(象)(,符)(合)(发)(展)(规)(律)(,而)(且)(增)(长)(质)(量)(总)(体)(稳)(定)(且)(有)(所)(改)(善)(,不)(必)(过)(分)(担)(忧)(通)(缩)(风)(险)(。中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(的)(探)(底)(过)(程)(有)(可)(能)(在)(一)(两)(年)(之)(内)(完)(成)(。”国)(务)(院)(发)(展)(研)(究)(中)(心)(副)(主)(任)(刘)(世)(锦)(对)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(表)(示)(。  刘)(世)(锦)(认)(为)(,经)(济)(增)(长)(速)(度)(放)(缓)(并)(不)(意)(味)(着)(少)(作)(为)(甚)(至)(不)(作)(为)(,调)(结)(构)(、转)(方)(式)(需)(要)(付)(出)(更)(大)(气)(力)(,有)(更)(大)(作)(为)(。我)(国)(经)(济)(发)(展)(新)(常)(态)(不)(是)(自)(然)(而)(然)(从)(天)(上)(掉)(下)(来)(的)(。适)(应)(放)(缓)(了)(的)(增)(长)(速)(度)(,最)(重)(要)(的)(是)(要)(形)(成)(与)(以)(往)(大)(不)(相)(同)(的)(增)(长)(结)(构)(和)(动)(力)(机)(制)(。  经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(是)(正)(常)(现)(象)(  《21世)(纪)(》:中)(国)(经)(济)(高)(速)(增)(长)(30多)(年)(后)(,最)(近)(两)(三)(年)(出)(现)(了)(放)(缓)(势)(头)(。怎)(么)(看)(这)(种)(现)(象)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:这)(是)(正)(常)(现)(象)(。2010年)(,我)(们)(的)(一)(个)(研)(究)(团)(队)(做)(过)(一)(项)(研)(究)(,注)(意)(到)(二)(战)(以)(后)(几)(十)(个)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(进)(入)(了)(工)(业)(化)(进)(程)(,但)(多)(数)(没)(有)(成)(功)(,落)(入)(了)(不)(同)(类)(型)(的)(中)(等)(收)(入)(陷)(阱)(,只)(有)(13个)(经)(济)(体)(,包)(括)(日)(本)(、韩)(国)(、中)(国)(台)(湾)(和)(香)(港)(等)(,进)(入)(了)(高)(收)(入)(社)(会)(行)(列)(。  这)(13个)(经)(济)(体)(有)(一)(个)(共)(同)(特)(点)(,就)(是)(它)(们)(也)(经)(历)(了)(二)(三)(十)(年)(高)(速)(增)(长)(,当)(人)(均)(GDP达)(到)(11000国)(际)(元)((这)(是)(一)(种)(购)(买)(力)(平)(价)(指)(标)()时)(,无)(一)(例)(外)(地)(出)(现)(增)(长)(速)(度)(的)(回)(落)(,回)(落)(幅)(度)(一)(般)(是)(一)(半)(左)(右)(,有)(的)(更)(大)(。  于)(是)(我)(们)(对)(中)(国)(也)(做)(了)(几)(种)(不)(同)(的)(测)(算)(,所)(得)(出)(的)(结)(论)(是)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(拐)(点)(,在)(2013年)(-2015年)(将)(会)(到)(来)(。我)(们)(提)(出)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(将)(会)(进)(入)(一)(个)(增)(长)(阶)(段)(转)(换)(期)(,由)(过)(去)(10%左)(右)(的)(高)(速)(增)(长)(,向)(中)(速)(增)(长)(转)(换)(。在)(四)(年)(前)(,对)(这)(一)(观)(点)(,多)(数)(人)(是)(不)(同)(意)(的)(。不)(少)(人)(认)(为)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(一)(直)(在)(高)(速)(增)(长)(,特)(别)(是)(在)(应)(对)(国)(际)(金)(融)(危)(机)(中)(一)(枝)(独)(秀)(,速)(度)(怎)(么)(可)(能)(下)(来)(呢)(?  从)(实)(际)(情)(况)(看)(,最)(近)(两)(三)(年)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(逐)(步)(回)(落)(,事)(实)(上)(已)(经)(进)(入)(了)(增)(长)(阶)(段)(转)(换)(期)(。到)(2014年)(底)(,中)(国)(的)(人)(均)(GDP已)(经)(接)(近)(11000国)(际)(元)(,而)(东)(部)(沿)(海)(发)(达)(省)(份)(前)(两)(年)(已)(经)(达)(到)(了)(,所)(以)(会)(看)(到)(东)(南)(沿)(海)(的)(经)(济)(回)(落)(率)(先)(发)(生)(。这)(正)(是)(现)(在)(所)(讲)(的)(“新)(常)(态)(”的)(一)(个)(表)(现)(。  《21世)(纪)(》:韩)(国)(、中)(国)(台)(湾)(和)(香)(港)(等)(13个)(经)(济)(体)(基)(本)(是)(小)(型)(经)(济)(体)(,他)(们)(的)(发)(展)(规)(律)(会)(适)(合)(中)(国)(吗)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:高)(速)(增)(长)(后)(的)(回)(落)(,从)(长)(期)(历)(史)(看)(,主)(要)(由)(人)(类)(已)(经)(发)(明)(和)(使)(用)(的)(技)(术)(及)(其)(决)(定)(的)(供)(给)(需)(求)(等)(因)(素)(决)(定)(的)(。这)(种)(规)(律)(在)(大)(小)(经)(济)(体)(之)(间)(没)(有)(显)(示)(出)(引)(人)(注)(目)(的)(差)(别)(。实)(际)(上)(,这)(13个)(经)(济)(体)(基)(本)(都)(实)(行)(开)(放)(政)(策)(和)(出)(口)(导)(向)(战)(略)(,它)(们)(自)(身)(虽)(小)(,但)(与)(更)(大)(范)(围)(的)(国)(际)(市)(场)(融)(为)(一)(体)(,也)(可)(以)(分)(享)(类)(似)(中)(国)(内)(部)(各)(地)(区)(同)(样)(的)(优)(势)(。从)(国)(际)(上)(看)(,有)(些)(小)(国)(比)(如)(瑞)(士)(、卢)(森)(堡)(、北)(欧)(诸)(国)(等)(,收)(入)(水)(平)(都)(不)(低)(于)(或)(高)(于)(美)(国)(等)(大)(国)(。  《21世)(纪)(》:这)(些)(经)(济)(体)(增)(速)(回)(落)(时)(,人)(均)(收)(入)(相)(当)(于)(美)(国)(当)(时)(多)(大)(比)(重)(?中)(国)(目)(前)(的)(人)(均)(收)(入)(相)(当)(于)(美)(国)(多)(大)(比)(重)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:这)(些)(经)(济)(体)(增)(速)(回)(落)(时)(,与)(美)(国)(的)(人)(均)(收)(入)(差)(距)(不)(等)(。  有)(观)(点)(认)(为)(,上)(世)(纪)(50年)(代)(初)(,日)(本)(人)(均)(收)(入)(相)(当)(于)(当)(时)(美)(国)(的)(21%,此)(后)(日)(本)(经)(历)(了)(20年)(的)(高)(速)(增)(长)(。中)(国)(目)(前)(人)(均)(收)(入)(也)(与)(当)(年)(日)(本)(与)(美)(国)(的)(差)(距)(相)(似)(,所)(以)(中)(国)(还)(有)(20年)(左)(右)(的)(高)(速)(增)(长)(期)(。  这)(种)(说)(法)(初)(看)(起)(来)(似)(有)(道)(理)(,其)(实)(混)(淆)(了)(不)(同)(国)(家)(发)(展)(阶)(段)(的)(差)(别)(。举)(个)(例)(子)(,一)(个)(人)(跑)(得)(最)(快)(的)(年)(龄)(是)(20-40岁)(,上)(世)(纪)(50年)(代)(初)(,日)(本)(是)(一)(个)(20岁)(出)(头)(的)(小)(伙)(子)(,而)(美)(国)(已)(经)(到)(了)(100岁)(,即)(日)(本)(的)(人)(均)(收)(入)(相)(当)(于)(美)(国)(的)(21%。此)(后)(发)(生)(了)(日)(本)(高)(速)(增)(长)(20年)(的)(故)(事)(。而)(当)(下)(的)(中)(国)(,虽)(然)(人)(均)(收)(入)(也)(相)(当)(于)(美)(国)(的)(20%左)(右)(,但)(此)(时)(美)(国)(已)(经)(200岁)(了)(,中)(国)(也)(40岁)(了)(,跑)(得)(最)(快)(的)(那)(段)(时)(间)(已)(经)(过)(去)(了)(。再)(做)(个)(比)(较)(,中)(国)(目)(前)(进)(入)(增)(长)(阶)(段)(转)(换)(,与)(日)(本)(上)(世)(纪)(70年)(代)(初)(增)(长)(放)(缓)(相)(比)(,按)(麦)(迪)(森)(方)(法)(计)(算)(的)(人)(均)(收)(入)((购)(买)(力)(平)(价)(,1990年)(国)(际)(元)()水)(平)(大)(体)(相)(当)(,是)(11000国)(际)(元)(左)(右)(。换)(言)(之)(,日)(本)(也)(是)(在)(40岁)(时)(进)(入)(高)(速)(增)(长)(到)(中)(速)(增)(长)(的)(转)(换)(期)(的)(。用)(后)(发)(经)(济)(体)(与)(美)(国)(等)(先)(行)(国)(家)(之)(间)(的)(人)(均)(收)(入)(比)(重)(,来)(估)(计)(后)(者)(的)(追)(赶)(速)(度)(,在)(逻)(辑)(和)(现)(实)(中)(都)(是)(有)(问)(题)(的)(。中)(国)(在)(40岁)(以)(后)(仍)(会)(追)(赶)(,但)(速)(度)(和)(方)(式)(将)(与)(此)(前)(大)(不)(相)(同)(。  中)(国)(经)(济)(结)(构)(在)(发)(生)(积)(极)(变)(化)(  《21世)(纪)(》:中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(也)(指)(出)(,经)(济)(结)(构)(调)(整)(出)(现)(积)(极)(变)(化)(。您)(认)(为)(,我)(国)(的)(经)(济)(结)(构)(出)(现)(哪)(些)(积)(极)(变)(化)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:增)(速)(放)(缓)(仅)(仅)(是)(一)(个)(表)(象)(,更)(有)(意)(义)(的)(是)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(正)(在)(发)(生)(具)(有)(长)(远)(意)(义)(的)(结)(构)(性)(变)(化)(。  过)(去)(常)(讲)(的)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(结)(构)(性)(问)(题)(,比)(如)(工)(业)(为)(主)(、投)(资)(为)(主)(、更)(多)(地)(依)(靠)(外)(需)(等)(,正)(在)(发)(生)(转)(折)(性)(的)(变)(化)(。第)(三)(产)(业)(的)(比)(重)(在)(去)(年)(已)(经)(超)(过)(第)(二)(产)(业)(。消)(费)(的)(比)(重)(前)(年)(已)(经)(超)(过)(投)(资)(,去)(年)(有)(所)(反)(复)(,今)(年)(又)(超)(过)(了)(投)(资)(。出)(口)(在)(过)(去)(经)(常)(保)(持)(20%以)(上)(的)(增)(长)(速)(度)(,但)(最)(近)(两)(年)(增)(速)(已)(经)(在)(下)(降)(,我)(们)(估)(计)(以)(后)(会)(保)(持)(5%-10%的)(水)(平)(。今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(出)(口)(甚)(至)(是)(负)(的)(增)(长)(。原)(因)(主)(要)(不)(是)(国)(际)(需)(求)(的)(变)(化)(,主)(要)(是)(中)(国)(的)(劳)(动)(力)(、土)(地)(、环)(境)(等)(要)(素)(成)(本)(上)(升)(,汇)(率)(水)(平)(上)(升)(,导)(致)(出)(口)(竞)(争)(力)(发)(生)(了)(很)(大)(变)(化)(。所)(以)(我)(们)(必)(须)(更)(多)(地)(依)(靠)(内)(需)(。  另)(外)(,在)(经)(济)(转)(型)(期)(,增)(长)(的)(质)(量)(和)(效)(益)(比)(任)(何)(时)(候)(都)(更)(重)(要)(。最)(近)(一)(两)(年)(,我)(们)(观)(察)(到)(了)(一)(些)(积)(极)(变)(化)(。  经)(济)(增)(长)(对)(就)(业)(的)(吸)(纳)(能)(力)(在)(提)(高)(。虽)(然)(还)(存)(在)(结)(构)(性)(就)(业)(问)(题)(,但)(总)(体)(上)(,就)(业)(压)(力)(和)(2008年)(相)(比)(小)(多)(了)(,很)(多)(地)(方)(还)(有)(“招)(工)(难)(”的)(问)(题)(。  企)(业)(盈)(利)(水)(平)(趋)(于)(稳)(定)(。这)(是)(我)(们)(最)(担)(心)(的)(一)(点)(,因)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(过)(去)(是)(典)(型)(的)(速)(度)(效)(益)(型)(经)(济)(,当)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(时)(,企)(业)(效)(益)(一)(般)(也)(下)(滑)(。但)(最)(近)(两)(三)(年)(,大)(家)(会)(看)(到)(企)(业)(效)(益)(也)(有)(所)(回)(落)(,但)(近)(两)(年)(已)(经)(趋)(于)(稳)(定)(。今)(年)(1-8月)(规)(模)(以)(上)(工)(业)(企)(业)(利)(润)(增)(长)(速)(度)(达)(到)(10%左)(右)(。  财)(政)(收)(入)(虽)(然)(有)(所)(波)(动)(,有)(些)(地)(方)(出)(现)(了)(多)(种)(困)(难)(,但)(总)(体)(保)(持)(了)(稳)(定)(增)(长)(的)(态)(势)(,今)(年)(1到)(8月)(也)(达)(到)(8%的)(增)(长)(幅)(度)(。  除)(此)(之)(外)(,随)(着)(增)(速)(回)(落)(,金)(融)(风)(险)(有)(所)(加)(大)(,有)(的)(地)(方)(和)(领)(域)(问)(题)(还)(比)(较)(突)(出)(,但)(并)(没)(有)(突)(破)(底)(线)(,没)(有)(出)(现)(全)(局)(性)(、系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(,总)(体)(还)(在)(可)(控)(范)(围)(内)(。中)(国)(抵)(御)(风)(险)(的)(实)(力)(和)(能)(力)(在)(全)(球)(范)(围)(看)(还)(是)(相)(当)(高)(的)(。  最)(后)(,居)(民)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(也)(在)(稳)(定)(增)(长)(。  从)(这)(几)(方)(面)(看)(得)(出)(,虽)(然)(中)(国)(经)(济)(存)(在)(很)(多)(问)(题)(,但)(没)(有)(出)(现)(不)(可)(收)(拾)(的)(大)(问)(题)(,这)(对)(处)(在)(转)(型)(期)(的)(经)(济)(来)(说)(,确)(实)(难)(能)(可)(贵)(。特)(别)(是)(结)(构)(转)(换)(加)(快)(和)(增)(长)(质)(量)(改)(进)(,对)(下)(一)(步)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(稳)(定)(持)(续)(发)(展)(创)(造)(了)(重)(要)(条)(件)(。  《21世)(纪)(》:中)(国)(经)(济)(既)(有)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(的)(一)(面)(,也)(有)(增)(长)(质)(量)(改)(善)(的)(一)(面)(。总)(体)(上)(您)(如)(何)(看)(呢)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:总)(体)(上)(看)(,第)(一)(,增)(速)(放)(缓)(是)(正)(常)(现)(象)(,体)(现)(了)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(规)(律)(。前)(面)(已)(经)(提)(到)(,在)(国)(际)(上)(,其)(他)(成)(功)(追)(赶)(性)(经)(济)(体)(在)(人)(均)(收)(入)(到)(11000国)(际)(元)(时)(都)(出)(现)(了)(这)(种)(情)(况)(。那)(些)(落)(入)(中)(等)(收)(入)(陷)(阱)(的)(国)(家)(,在)(还)(没)(有)(达)(到)(11000国)(际)(元)(时)(,增)(速)(就)(掉)(下)(去)(了)(。中)(国)(能)(够)(到)(了)(11000国)(际)(元)(时)(增)(速)(才)(回)(落)(,表)(明)(中)(国)(比)(较)(充)(分)(地)(发)(掘)(了)(人)(类)(社)(会)(所)(提)(供)(的)(工)(业)(化)(阶)(段)(经)(济)(增)(长)(潜)(力)(,实)(际)(上)(是)(成)(功)(的)(标)(志)(。  第)(二)(,这)(是)(潜)(在)(增)(长)(率)(的)(下)(降)(。一)(些)(地)(方)(的)(增)(速)(回)(落)(了)(,当)(地)(领)(导)(就)(讲)(是)(他)(们)(主)(动)(调)(控)(的)(,言)(下)(之)(意)(想)(让)(它)(上)(去)(还)(能)(上)(去)(。能)(上)(去)(吗)(?恐)(怕)(不)(行)(了)(,因)(为)(潜)(在)(增)(长)(率)(下)(来)(了)(。  第)(三)(,从)(国)(际)(范)(围)(看)(,如)(果)(今)(后)(一)(些)(年)(中)(国)(能)(保)(持)(6%-7%的)(增)(速)(,还)(是)(相)(当)(高)(的)(,没)(几)(个)(国)(家)(可)(以)(达)(到)(这)(个)(水)(平)(。从)(中)(国)(角)(度)(讲)(是)(中)(等)(速)(度)(,国)(际)(上)(讲)(仍)(然)(处)(于)(高)(速)(度)(,所)(以)(称)(其)(为)(中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(。  第)(四)(,虽)(然)(增)(长)(速)(度)(放)(缓)(了)(,但)(增)(长)(基)(数)(是)(在)(持)(续)(增)(大)(的)(。2000年)(对)(应)(的)(新)(增)(量)(是)(1000亿)(人)(民)(币)(,2013年)(是)(5000-6000亿)(人)(民)(币)(。这)(就)(很)(容)(易)(明)(白)(为)(什)(么)(这)(两)(年)(就)(业)(形)(势)(还)(不)(错)(:2005年)(增)(长)(一)(个)(百)(分)(点)(吸)(纳)(的)(就)(业)(是)(80万)(人)(,2013年)(增)(长)(一)(个)(百)(分)(点)(吸)(纳)(的)(就)(业)(是)(170万)(人)(。所)(以)(中)(国)(的)(新)(增)(量)(还)(是)(很)(大)(的)(,市)(场)(潜)(力)(、市)(场)(前)(景)(是)(广)(阔)(的)(,没)(有)(任)(何)(理)(由)(说)(中)(国)(经)(济)(不)(行)(了)(。  最)(后)(,即)(使)(中)(国)(的)(经)(济)(增)(速)(有)(所)(降)(低)(,仍)(然)(可)(以)(如)(期)(实)(现)(2020年)(全)(面)(建)(成)(小)(康)(社)(会)(的)(目)(标)(。按)(照)(现)(价)(美)(元)(计)(算)(的)(中)(国)(GDP总)(量)(,有)(很)(大)(的)(可)(能)(性)(在)(2020年)(或)(者)(稍)(后)(一)(两)(年)(赶)(上)(美)(国)(,那)(时)(中)(国)(的)(人)(均)(收)(入)(还)(是)(比)(较)(低)(,相)(当)(于)(美)(国)(的)(四)(分)(之)(一)(到)(五)(分)(之)(一)(,但)(是)(也)(可)(以)(进)(入)(高)(收)(入)(国)(家)(行)(列)(了)(。  总)(之)(,尽)(管)(中)(国)(今)(年)(的)(增)(速)(有)(所)(回)(落)(,但)(结)(构)(调)(整)(和)(总)(体)(质)(量)(还)(是)(不)(错)(的)(,有)(些)(方)(面)(的)(进)(展)(是)(突)(破)(性)(的)(。我)(们)(对)(整)(个)(形)(势)(应)(该)(持)(乐)(观)(积)(极)(的)(态)(度)(。  经)(济)(探)(底)(还)(未)(完)(成)(  《21世)(纪)(》:那)(么)(,您)(认)(为)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(还)(会)(继)(续)(下)(滑)(吗)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:由)(高)(速)(增)(长)(向)(中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(的)(转)(变)(是)(一)(个)(过)(程)(,目)(前)(这)(个)(过)(程)(还)(没)(有)(结)(束)(,中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(的)(“底)(”或)(经)(济)(学)(上)(说)(的)(均)(衡)(点)(是)(多)(少)(,现)(在)(还)(没)(有)(探)(明)(。  最)(近)(两)(三)(年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(一)(般)(到)(年)(中)(会)(有)(反)(弹)(,这)(时)(乐)(观)(的)(判)(断)(就)(多)(了)(一)(些)(,有)(人)(认)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(又)(会)(重)(回)(高)(增)(长)(轨)(道)(。我)(们)(的)(判)(断)(是)(不)(会)(的)(,只)(是)(由)(于)(预)(期)(改)(善)(、存)(货)(调)(整)(引)(起)(的)(短)(期)(反)(弹)(,因)(为)(探)(底)(过)(程)(还)(没)(有)(完)(成)(。所)(以)(我)(们)(看)(到)(中)(国)(经)(济)(下)(行)(的)(压)(力)(一)(直)(是)(持)(续)(的)(。  什)(么)(时)(候)(探)(底)(才)(算)(结)(束)(?这)(里)(有)(一)(个)(简)(化)(的)(分)(析)(逻)(辑)(。中)(国)(的)(高)(增)(长)(主)(要)(依)(赖)(高)(投)(资)(,高)(投)(资)(主)(要)(有)(三)(项)(:基)(础)(设)(施)(一)(般)(占)(20%-25%,房)(地)(产)(是)(25%左)(右)(,制)(造)(业)(是)(30%以)(上)(,三)(项)(合)(起)(来)(占)(投)(资)(的)(80%-85%。三)(项)(中)(间)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(又)(依)(赖)(于)(基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(、房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(以)(及)(出)(口)(。所)(以)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(要)(落)(下)(来)(,主)(要)(是)(投)(资)(要)(落)(下)(来)(,通)(俗)(地)(说)(,也)(就)(是)(出)(口)(、基)(础)(设)(施)(、房)(地)(产)(这)(三)(只)(靴)(子)(要)(相)(继)(落)(地)(,中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(的)(底)(也)(就)(见)(到)(了)(。  目)(前)(,中)(国)(的)(基)(础)(设)(施)(建)(设)(和)(出)(口)(都)(基)(本)(触)(底)(了)(。接)(下)(来)(就)(是)(房)(地)(产)(能)(不)(能)(触)(底)(。房)(地)(产)(今)(年)(已)(经)(出)(现)(了)(拐)(点)(,有)(的)(说)(是)(周)(期)(性)(的)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(这)(是)(一)(个)(历)(史)(性)(的)(拐)(点)(。根)(据)(我)(们)(的)(研)(究)(测)(算)(,构)(成)(中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(70%的)(住)(宅)(年)(需)(求)(峰)(值)(是)(1200-1300万)(套)(,这)(个)(数)(字)(在)(今)(年)(已)(经)(达)(到)(了)(,这)(个)(点)(达)(到)(后)(,房)(地)(产)(增)(速)(基)(本)(是)(持)(平)(的)(,持)(续)(一)(段)(时)(间)(后)(还)(要)(回)(落)(。所)(以)(我)(们)(明)(确)(提)(出)(,这)(次)(的)(拐)(点)(不)(是)(短)(期)(的)(拐)(点)(。房)(价)(问)(题)(很)(复)(杂)(,区)(域)(性)(差)(异)(明)(显)(,但)(总)(体)(上)(看)(中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(的)(历)(史)(性)(拐)(点)(已)(经)(出)(现)(了)(。我)(们)(希)(望)(房)(价)(能)(够)(逐)(步)(的)(下)(来)(,不)(希)(望)(下)(得)(太)(快)(,最)(好)(是)(时)(间)(换)(空)(间)(,能)(够)(实)(现)(软)(着)(陆)(。  总)(之)(,当)(房)(地)(产)(这)(只)(靴)(子)(落)(地)(后)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(的)(“底)(”就)(基)(本)(探)(着)(了)(。所)(以)(十)(三)(五)(期)(间)(将)(是)(新)(常)(态)(形)(成)(并)(得)(以)(巩)(固)(的)(关)(键)(时)(期)(,我)(们)(要)(争)(取)(平)(稳)(较)(快)(地)(转)(入)(新)(常)(态)(。  《21世)(纪)(》:市)(场)(上)(也)(有)(观)(点)(担)(心)(经)(济)(增)(速)(不)(断)(下)(滑)(,已)(经)(低)(于)(潜)(在)(增)(速)(,有)(类)(似)(1998-2001年)(通)(缩)(的)(危)(险)(。您)(怎)(么)(看)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:中)(国)(近)(几)(年)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(,是)(由)(潜)(在)(增)(长)(率)(下)(降)(引)(起)(的)(,属)(于)(正)(常)(的)(增)(长)(阶)(段)(转)(换)(。这)(个)(过)(程)(中)(,也)(可)(能)(出)(现)(实)(际)(增)(长)(率)(高)(于)(或)(低)(于)(潜)(在)(增)(长)(率)(的)(情)(况)(,这)(是)(短)(期)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(政)(策)(所)(要)(关)(注)(和)(应)(对)(的)(。  至)(于)(目)(前)(是)(否)(已)(经)(出)(现)(通)(缩)(,还)(需)(要)(进)(一)(步)(观)(察)(。近)(期)(就)(业)(尚)(好)(,企)(业)(盈)(利)(、财)(政)(收)(入)(、居)(民)(收)(入)(等)(还)(未)(出)(大)(的)(问)(题)(,还)(不)(能)(得)(出)(已)(发)(生)(通)(缩)(的)(结)(论)(。  部)(分)(行)(业)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(属)(于)(结)(构)(性)(的)(中)(长)(期)(问)(题)(,不)(是)(简)(单)(放)(松)(宏)(观)(政)(策)(就)(能)(解)(决)(的)(。相)(反)(,如)(果)(刺)(激)(不)(当)(,还)(可)(能)(加)(剧)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(。  当)(然)(,近)(一)(两)(个)(月)(份)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(降)(幅)(较)(大)(,需)(要)(引)(起)(关)(注)(。宏)(观)(调)(控)(中)(的)(刺)(激)(政)(策)(是)(一)(个)(中)(性)(概)(念)(,不)(能)(将)(其)(负)(面)(化)(。当)(增)(速)(出)(现)(快)(速)(下)(滑)(苗)(头)(时)(,适)(度)(的)(刺)(激)(政)(策)(仍)(是)(必)(要)(的)(。但)(要)(明)(确)(,刺)(激)(政)(策)(只)(是)(有)(助)(于)(恢)(复)(短)(期)(平)(衡)(,并)(不)(能)(解)(决)(中)(长)(期)(的)(结)(构)(问)(题)(。转)(型)(期)(推)(出)(刺)(激)(措)(施)(的)(目)(的)(是)(“托)(底)(”,防)(止)(严)(重)(偏)(离)(潜)(在)(增)(长)(率)(,损)(害)(增)(长)(质)(量)(,而)(非)(“推)(高)(”,重)(返)(高)(增)(长)(轨)(道)(。  《21世)(纪)(》:成)(功)(跨)(入)(高)(收)(入)(的)(13个)(经)(济)(体)(在)(增)(速)(回)(落)(时)(,回)(落)(幅)(度)(是)(一)(半)(左)(右)(或)(者)(更)(大)(。那)(么)(中)(国)(未)(来)(的)(中)(高)(速)(会)(是)(多)(少)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:中)(国)(由)(高)(速)(增)(长)(降)(到)(中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(后)(的)(均)(衡)(点)(是)(多)(少)(,还)(需)(要)(观)(察)(。从)(目)(前)(看)(,7%-8%的)(增)(长)(率)(大)(概)(是)(稳)(不)(住)(的)(,还)(会)(有)(一)(个)(探)(底)(过)(程)(。  需)(要)(强)(调)(的)(是)(,在)(经)(济)(规)(模)(持)(续)(增)(大)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,增)(速)(下)(降)(会)(产)(生)(“数)(字)(幻)(觉)(”。现)(在)(增)(长)(一)(个)(百)(分)(点)(的)(增)(量)(,相)(当)(于)(本)(世)(纪)(初)(的)(五)(六)(倍)(,也)(就)(是)(相)(当)(于)(那)(时)(的)(好)(几)(个)(百)(分)(点)(。即)(使)(增)(速)(降)(到)(7%或)(以)(下)(,每)(年)(新)(增)(量)(依)(然)(十)(分)(可)(观)(,而)(且)(是)(持)(续)(增)(长)(的)(。中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(后)(劲)(依)(然)(不)(容)(低)(估)(。  新)(常)(态)(下)(要)(确)(立)(发)(展)(质)(量)(导)(向)(  《21世)(纪)(》:中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(指)(出)(,要)(坚)(持)(以)(提)(高)(经)(济)(发)(展)(质)(量)(和)(效)(益)(为)(中)(心)(,主)(动)(适)(应)(经)(济)(发)(展)(新)(常)(态)(。为)(什)(么)(现)(在)(要)(强)(调)(坚)(持)(以)(提)(高)(经)(济)(发)(展)(质)(量)(和)(效)(益)(为)(中)(心)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:提)(高)(经)(济)(增)(长)(质)(量)(已)(经)(讲)(了)(多)(年)(,之)(所)(以)(落)(实)(不)(到)(位)(,一)(个)(重)(要)(原)(因)(是)(以)(往)(的)(高)(速)(度)(容)(易)(掩)(盖)(增)(长)(质)(量)(方)(面)(的)(问)(题)(。当)(增)(长)(速)(度)(放)(缓)(后)(,再)(不)(重)(视)(增)(长)(质)(量)(,即)(便)(中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(也)(将)(难)(以)(为)(继)(。因)(此)(,新)(常)(态)(下)(必)(须)(旗)(帜)(鲜)(明)(地)(确)(立)(增)(长)(质)(量)(导)(向)(。这)(实)(际)(上)(也)(是)(一)(个)(新)(形)(势)(下)(的)(发)(展)(观)(问)(题)(。我)(们)(讲)(科)(学)(发)(展)(,最)(重)(要)(的)(是)(顺)(应)(发)(展)(规)(律)(,在)(转)(入)(中)(高)(增)(长)(期)(后)(,切)(实)(以)(提)(高)(增)(长)(质)(量)(为)(中)(心)(,谋)(划)(和)(带)(动)(经)(济)(工)(作)(全)(局)(。  《21世)(纪)(》:具)(体)(而)(言)(,我)(们)(应)(当)(提)(高)(经)(济)(发)(展)(质)(量)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:以)(增)(长)(质)(量)(指)(标)(倒)(推)(速)(度)(指)(标)(。新)(常)(态)(下)(我)(们)(仍)(然)(需)(要)(保)(持)(一)(个)(适)(当)(高)(的)(增)(长)(速)(度)(,但)(仅)(就)(速)(度)(论)(速)(度)(是)(无)(解)(的)(。以)(往)(存)(在)(着)(“以)(速)(度)(论)(英)(雄)(”的)(倾)(向)(,先)(定)(速)(度)(指)(标)(,再)(以)(此)(安)(排)(其)(他)(指)(标)(,往)(往)(扭)(曲)(了)(速)(度)(和)(质)(量)(之)(间)(的)(关)(系)(。在)(经)(济)(增)(长)(更)(多)(依)(靠)(生)(产)(率)(提)(升)(的)(新)(形)(势)(下)(,重)(视)(并)(切)(实)(抓)(好)(增)(长)(质)(量)(,才)(有)(可)(能)(争)(取)(一)(个)(较)(高)(的)(增)(长)(速)(度)(。打)(不)(好)(增)(长)(质)(量)(的)(底)(子)(,要)(么)(速)(度)(上)(不)(去)(,要)(么)(上)(去)(了)(也)(难)(以)(维)(持)(。质)(量)(指)(标)(优)(先)(,以)(增)(长)(质)(量)(倒)(推)(速)(度)(,才)(能)(摆)(正)(经)(济)(发)(展)(过)(程)(中)(的)(诸)(多)(关)(系)(,实)(现)(充)(分)(利)(用)(增)(长)(潜)(力)(且)(具)(可)(持)(续)(性)(的)(增)(长)(。为)(此)(,应)(精)(心)(研)(究)(和)(确)(定)(反)(映)(新)(常)(态)(下)(增)(长)(质)(量)(的)(指)(标)(,例)(如)(,按)(照)(“就)(业)(可)(充)(分)(、企)(业)(可)(盈)(利)(、财)(政)(可)(增)(收)(、民)(生)(可)(改)(善)(、风)(险)(可)(控)(制)(、资)(源)(环)(境)(可)(持)(续)(”的)(要)(求)(,形)(成)(若)(干)(有)(利)(于)(提)(高)(增)(长)(质)(量)(、切)(实)(可)(行)(的)(指)(标)(。然)(后)(,以)(质)(量)(指)(标)(倒)(推)(或)(确)(定)(速)(度)(指)(标)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,适)(应)(提)(高)(增)(长)(质)(量)(要)(求)(的)(速)(度)(才)(是)(一)(个)(合)(适)(的)(、好)(的)(速)(度)(。  适)(应)(增)(长)(质)(量)(的)(要)(求)(加)(强)(和)(改)(进)(宏)(观)(调)(控)(。与)(增)(长)(质)(量)(相)(对)(应)(的)(速)(度)(有)(一)(个)(合)(理)(区)(间)(,速)(度)(过)(高)(或)(过)(低)(都)(会)(对)(增)(长)(质)(量)(产)(生)(不)(利)(影)(响)(。在)(目)(前)(情)(况)(下)(,速)(度)(过)(高)(将)(会)(加)(长)(杠)(杆)(,增)(大)(一)(些)(领)(域)(本)(已)(较)(为)(严)(重)(的)(金)(融)(财)(政)(风)(险)(或)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(;过)(低)(则)(会)(降)(低)(企)(业)(效)(益)(和)(财)(政)(收)(入)(,进)(而)(影)(响)(到)(就)(业)(增)(长)(。保)(持)(与)(增)(长)(质)(量)(相)(适)(应)(的)(速)(度)(区)(间)(并)(不)(容)(易)(,对)(宏)(观)(调)(控)(提)(出)(了)(新)(的)(更)(具)(挑)(战)(性)(的)(要)(求)(。  《21世)(纪)(》:以)(增)(长)(质)(量)(为)(导)(向)(,当)(前)(和)(今)(后)(一)(个)(时)(期)(的)(着)(力)(点)(是)(什)(么)(?  刘)(世)(锦)(:坚)(持)(增)(长)(质)(量)(导)(向)(,今)(后)(一)(个)(时)(期)(必)(须)(把)(防)(控)(金)(融)(财)(政)(风)(险)(放)(到)(重)(要)(位)(置)(。过)(去)(长)(时)(间)(的)(高)(增)(长)(,一)(定)(程)(度)(掩)(盖)(或)(推)(后)(了)(金)(融)(财)(政)(风)(险)(。在)(增)(长)(阶)(段)(转)(换)(过)(程)(中)(,随)(着)(增)(长)(环)(境)(和)(机)(制)(的)(改)(变)(,房)(地)(产)(、严)(重)(过)(剩)(产)(业)(、影)(子)(银)(行)(、地)(方)(融)(资)(平)(台)(等)(领)(域)(的)(风)(险)(有)(可)(能)(累)(积)(或)(显)(露)(。我)(们)(强)(调)(增)(长)(速)(度)(要)(与)(提)(高)(增)(长)(质)(量)(相)(适)(应)(,很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(是)(与)(防)(控)(金)(融)(财)(政)(风)(险)(的)(要)(求)(相)(适)(应)(。从)(国)(际)(经)(验)(看)(,不)(论)(是)(老)(牌)(发)(达)(国)(家)(,还)(是)(后)(起)(的)(追)(赶)(型)(经)(济)(体)(,在)(经)(历)(了)(较)(长)(时)(间)(的)(高)(速)(增)(长)(后)(,大)(都)(曾)(出)(现)(了)(不)(同)(类)(型)(的)(金)(融)(危)(机)(,有)(的)(很)(多)(年)(难)(以)(恢)(复)(。因)(此)(,在)(增)(长)(阶)(段)(转)(换)(期)(,必)(须)(把)(防)(控)(金)(融)(财)(政)(风)(险)(放)(到)(比)(其)(它)(时)(期)(更)(重)(要)(的)(位)(置)(上)(。只)(要)(我)(们)(守)(住)(了)(不)(发)(生)(系)(统)(性)(、全)(局)(性)(风)(险)(的)(底)(线)(,平)(稳)(转)(入)(中)(高)(增)(长)(期)(,即)(使)(其)(他)(指)(标)(短)(期)(内)(差)(一)(点)(,从)(大)(局)(和)(长)(远)(看)(,也)(是)(值)(得)(的)(。从)(国)(际)(上)(说)(,我)(们)(也)(将)(创)(造)(出)(现)(代)(经)(济)(发)(展)(历)(程)(中)(有)(价)(值)(的)(新)(鲜)(经)(验)(。  提)(高)(增)(长)(质)(量)(归)(根)(结)(底)(要)(靠)(深)(化)(改)(革)(开)(放)(。有)(种)(观)(点)(认)(为)(,我)(国)(仍)(然)(具)(有)(高)(增)(长)(的)(潜)(力)(,只)(是)(体)(制)(障)(碍)(制)(约)(了)(这)(种)(潜)(力)(的)(发)(挥)(。换)(言)(之)(,只)(要)(改)(革)(到)(位)(了)(,仍)(然)(可)(以)(重)(回)(以)(往)(的)(高)(增)(长)(轨)(道)(。这)(种)(观)(点)(对)(改)(革)(与)(增)(长)(的)(关)(系)(的)(理)(解)(并)(不)(准)(确)(。改)(革)(与)(增)(长)(的)(关)(系)(相)(当)(复)(杂)(,有)(些)(改)(革)(如)(放)(宽)(市)(场)(准)(入)(,确)(实)(能)(够)(释)(放)(增)(长)(潜)(能)(;有)(些)(改)(革)(如)(反)(腐)(败)(,则)(可)(能)(短)(期)(内)(限)(制)(一)(些)(浪)(费)(性)(的)(消)(费)(。但)(两)(者)(有)(一)(个)(共)(同)(点)(,就)(是)(都)(有)(利)(于)(提)(高)(效)(率)(。放)(宽)(准)(入)(“放)(”进)(来)(一)(些)(有)(活)(力)(的)(投)(资)(者)(,固)(然)(可)(以)(带)(来)(投)(资)(增)(量)(,更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(提)(高)(了)(投)(资)(效)(率)(。减)(少)(浪)(费)(性)(消)(费)(后)(,把)(资)(金)(用)(于)(扶)(贫)(、改)(善)(民)(生)(等)(领)(域)(,将)(会)(大)(大)(有)(利)(于)(经)(济)(发)(展)(和)(社)(会)(进)(步)(。由)(此)(说)(来)(,增)(长)(质)(量)(状)(况)(,应)(当)(成)(为)(改)(革)(开)(放)(是)(否)(深)(入)(、是)(否)(取)(得)(成)(效)(最)(重)(要)(的)(尺)(度)(之)(一)(。切)(实)(推)(进)(关)(键)(领)(域)(的)(改)(革)(开)(放)(,进)(而)(打)(牢)(提)(高)(增)(长)(质)(量)(的)(基)(础)(,我)(国)(经)(济)(才)(能)(在)(新)(常)(态)(下)(争)(取)(到)(实)(实)(在)(在)(、没)(有)(水)(分)(,同)(时)(也)(是)(相)(对)(较)(高)(的)(增)(长)(速)(度)(,开)(拓)(健)(康)(稳)(定)(可)(持)(续)(的)(发)(展)(新)(局)(面)(。  作)(者)(:王)(尔)(德)(
)


相关文章

版权所有:南方新闻网 粤ICP备05070829 网站标识码4400000131
主办:南方新闻网 协办:广东省经济和信息化委员会 承办:南方新闻网
建议使用1024×768分辨率 IE7.0以上版本浏览器
北京赛车微信群-赛车PK10群【进群微信8996155】_幸运飞艇_幸运28群

星云视觉高端摄影工作室 版权所有
Copyright ? 2014-2015 星云视觉摄影 Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
友情链接: 厦门星云视觉摄影工 厦门星云视觉 厦门婚纱摄影